Think Larger
On The Future
Humanity's capacity for innovation and overcoming challenges is almost unlimited. However, our capacity for self-destruction and harm are just as powerful. What the future holds may not be determined by either, but rather by systemic forces that are wound together with humanity as just one strand in thousands.
Imagine a stack of 25 quarters sitting on a table. Now imagine 25 stack of quarters tightly stacked next to each other. Now think about each layer of quarters slightly shifting to the right or the left so that no stack of quarters is all by itself any more. In this scenario you know longer have one stack of quarters or 25 stacks of quarters, but a system of stacks of quarters.
These layered and interacting stacks of quarters represent our world and the systems that run are world. Even if we can know the stacks of quarters exist, we can't know all the points they interact without taking them apart layer by layer. When people talk about changing systems they are talking about a challenge of significant complexity, like the layer of quarters. Especially, since it is impossible to see all the parts that touch.
Since it seems impossible to repair or change large systems, people will resort to tearing the system down and starting over. In countries these become revolutions and lead to civil wars. What people sometimes fail to grasp is that the system that comes to the surface might not be better than what currently exists.
There is a shred of truth in the idea that systems must be torn down in order to rebuild, however, systems are incredible resilient and will fight back. Within humanity's systems are just that, human beings. Their families, their livelihoods, their values, pride and sense of existence. They will fight back.
So when we look at the world and it's future, most patterns and systems will continue unless they are torn down or confronted with failure, war, or some catastrophe. And most likely this will be on a global scale. Is it absolute? No! but is likely unless something outside of our shared systems becomes more important than the systems themselves.
On World Peace
World peace may be a fantasy. Generally, humans maintain peace around shared values, the possibility of shared personal gain, or when they experience a threat to stability, gain, or life existence. The world will never all hold the same values, cannot all achieve personal gain equally, and will only share mutual global threats if a violent alien race or AI terminator shows up. Apart from these things global peace is unlikely.
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As humanity what we share from values to finances is wound together into a highly intertwined global existence. The systemic nature of our existence makes change very difficult and systems, inhabited by people, will defend their existence. The Communist Party of China might be a great example. China has over 1.4 billion people. Of that I believe over 1 billion would vote for far more democracy and freedom if given the choice. It is the nature of people to want freedom. However the 400 million people who actually benefit from the Communist system will never let that happen, especially those in the military and Communist Party.
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The only way communism fell in the U.S.S.R. (Union of Soviet Socialist Republic) which Russia was the center of, was through internal financial collapse. The outcome of that collapse was such a difficult time for the country that it gave rise and impetus to the current Russian regime, just as the fallout and hardships of WWI gave rise to Hitler; and the reemergence of Russia's global threat. Now that threat has become a European war in Ukraine and has developed into a nuclear powered totalitarian axis between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
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What is different is that there is no way to collapse China internally without collapsing America and most of the global economy. The world is so intertwined with the Chinese manufacturing machine that China is everywhere and the west loves the production of cheap products. So, as long as we keep funding China through our consumerism and lust for life, then China will continue it's march toward global dominance.
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Sooner or later this rise and the totalitarian axis described will lead to a global war. The ideological drives within the axis from Russia's pursuit of a revived USSR to Iran's drive to extinguish the nation of Israel, will require a democratic forceful reaction. Sadly, while China has been raising up a nation of warriors, the West has been raising up nations of wimps, whose greatest duty is a selfie and whose greatest honor is a like.
On Climate Change
The outcomes of climate change will not be prevented. Ideologies, power, and greed which drive global politics and systems will prevent this. Naively, most climate activists exert their efforts and create damage in locations that allow their freedom to do so and are generally most open to addressing their concerns.
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Western nations and especially European nations have been some of the most aggressive advocates of addressing climate change, yet at least some of the destruction by activists happen in Europe's most prestigious locations where activities hope to interrupt the mindset of business and life as usual.
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The hard reality is that people and systems generally won't sacrifice for the unknown and tend not to change without crisis. This doesn't mean people aren't altruistic at times, or loving and caring. Or that parents won't make extreme sacrifices and risks for the future of their children. However, the types of global changes necessary to shift to a sustainable and, equality driven economic and political structure will always run into the ideologies and lesser human qualities that focus our energies on the short term.
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The top five polluter nations are China (30%), United States (15%), India (7%), Russia (5%), and Japan (4%). There is no other counterweight in the world to Chinese and Russian expansion and bullying than the United States. It doesn't exist. As long as those two countries believe that expansion and destruction of other nations are an acceptable form of action, then they will not cease their polluting ways. As long as the United States is the only global counterweight, then we cannot cease our polluting ways. his brings us to a the climactic stalemate and why we will not make significant climate related global changes no matter how many COP meetings are held.
On Change in America
It is very easy to wish for changes in America since there is plenty of room for improvement. However, when people assume that programs or policies that work in small more homogeneous nations can easily work in larger, complex, and more diverse countries is innocently naive, ignorant, or intentionally deceitful.
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You do not have to be a historian or liberal activist to recognize and acknowledge that Americas growth was as much based on it's worst characteristics like slavery and racism, as well as it's better characteristics like innovation and opportunity. However, this can be said about almost every powerful nation the world has known and knows today. People are simply parts of the engine of societal existence driven by politics, powers and money.
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The future of United States will not be determined by American's ability to right every wrong or pay off every debt. It will be determined by our ability to find a new vision that will motivate us as a people to put the nation itself and our belief in what the nation can be, ahead of personal gain, selfies, and likes. America's national pride has become so divided that both political parties now claim the other to be serious threats to our nation and democracy. This hyperbole is representative of the distorted and self-destructive mental maps that have formed in the souls of the American populace. If this is not corrected or adjusted due to outside forces, then we are likely on the edge of national breakdown and demise.
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Is there a possible future. If there is it will depend on whether the middle can take back control from the extremes. Either that, or some event, natural or spiritual reorients Americans back toward a more agreeable middle and sense of national identity.
On The Christian Church and Culture
If Christians are concerned about the future of a culture then we must ask ourselves where we as Christians are failing. Culture is formed from the hearts of people and God alone searches, changes, and judges the heart.
The Christian church does not grasp its degree of compromise in comparison to the biblical vision and mission. Nor does it fully grasp the efforts of the God's enemies to thwart the most important weaponry of war in the spiritual realm; the power of prayer. Actions of love will communicate love, but only the Spirit of God changes the spiritual realm and the heart.
On America's Future
​​​​Modern media has transformed the speed with which the loudest voices of extreme can silence the collective voice of the middle. If the collective middle cannot find a way to unite, then significant turmoil, as we have discovered in the last four years, will come to the surface.
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During U.S. presidential election cycles the general discussion is around swing voters and swing states ultimately deciding the outcome. This is a reality that also represents what I believe is the greatest challenge to American politics. Two political parties force the people of America into compliance and with the powers that control those two parties. Voters only option is to swing back to whatever the other extreme might be.
These swing voters and swing states hold the ultimate power and will continue to swing back and forth between the parties depending on their own factors. The 2024 election cycle has demonstrated this reality.
The swing states and independent voters have clearly swung the momentum within America away from the leftward side of our political spectrum. If the right goes too far in the opposite direction without remembering that almost half of the population didn't want to go there, the states will swing back in four years.
If they don't go too far and global realities allow the trump administration to stay centered with a strong economy, another Republican might win in four years. The seesaw effect is very real, but the draw is always moving away from balance, as long as the extremes are elected to power.
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Can the collective middle hold the ground in a two-party system. We will see in a couple of years, when the next round of elections take place.